Conditionals, probability, and decision, ESSLLI 2024

Instructors: Melissa Fusco and Matt Mandelkern
Dates: July 29-August 2, 2024

Course description: This advanced course in Language and Logic will explore interactions between the theory of the conditional and the theory of rational decision. Stalnaker (1971) and many following have argued that there is a close connection between conditionals and rational decision: at a first pass, you should do the act that, in expectation, would bring about the best consequences if you were to do it. This intuitive picture both constrains, and is constrained by, the theory of the conditional (in particular, its logic and semantics, and corresponding probabilities). The course will explore the interacting perspectives of conditional semantics and decision theory.

Tentative schedule:

Class 1: Foundations
Handout
Stalnaker's letter to Lewis

Classes 2-3: Conditionals: Semantics, logic, probability
Handout
Stalnaker, A theory of conditionals

Classes 4-5: Back to decision theory
Handout
Handout